ASX:REAStock Market
Sydney Home Prices Are Falling. Two Major Indexes Disagree on Speed
PropTrack, part of REA Group, reported a 0.3% monthly drop; Cotality measured a 1.4% slide. Their peak-to-current estimates also differ: 4.9% against 7.1%.
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Artificial IntelligenceNASDAQ:AEHR
Aehr Stock Rebounds 13%. The Revenue Guide Still Has to Earn a $2.81 Billion Valuation
FREMONT, California, Sept. 4, 2026, 11:47 p.m. EDT — Aehr Test Systems jumped 13.1% on Friday, closing at $86.26 on heavy volume. There was…
A 13% Friday jump did not erase the August break
Daily closes, U.S. dollars, Aug. 3 through Sept. 4
Friday close $86.26Friday +13.1%From Aug. 17 close −40.8%Volume 4.50m
Close as of . Source: Yahoo Finance historical market data. Percentage comparisons use unadjusted closes; volume is reported exchange volume.
The guide leaves little room for a multiple reset
Friday valuation against company guidance; TS2 calculations
CLOSE-BASED EQUITY VALUE$2.81bn$86.26 × 32.62m shares
FY2027 REVENUE GUIDE$130m–$150m160%–200% projected growth
EQUITY VALUE / SALES21.6×–18.8×low to high revenue case
NON-GAAP INCOME GUIDE$23.4m–$33.0mrevenue × guided margin
Last reported $100.6m effective backlog as a share of guidance
$130m revenue case77.4%
$150m revenue case67.1%
Read this carefully: backlog is not guaranteed revenue. The $100.6 million figure was reported July 14. Aehr’s later $22 million order is real, but shipments and other bookings changed after that date, so it cannot simply be added to produce a current backlog balance.
Sources: Aehr’s fiscal 2026 results and guidance and its Form 10-K. Equity value uses the July 20 share count and Friday close.
Analysts still point higher — from a small sample
Published 12-month targets tracked through Aug. 14 versus Friday’s close
Current
$86.26Low
$110Average
$130High
$175
$86.26Low
$110Average
$130High
$175
ANALYST COUNT5small-cap coverage remains thin
CONSENSUSStrong BuyS&P Global poll
AVERAGE UPSIDE50.7%from Friday’s close
TARGET SPREAD$65wide range signals uncertainty
The catch: these targets predate the latest selloff and rebound. A five-analyst consensus is context, not proof that the market has mispriced the stock.
Source: S&P Global analyst data compiled by StockAnalysis, last updated Aug. 14, 2026. Upside percentages are TS2 calculations using the Sept. 4 close.
EPA:RNOHKG:0175
Geely EX2 Gets 7% Brazil Fleet Discount as 35% EV Tariff Raises Localization Stakes
SÃO PAULO, Sept. 5, 2026, 12:24 a.m. BRT — Geely Automobile Holdings has put its EX2 electric car into a new Brazilian direct-sales program.…
Geely shares have given back their August high
Selected daily closes for Geely Auto in Hong Kong, HK dollars
Sept. 4 close HK$17.28One month −9.4%Sept. 4 +0.35%Volume 30.4m
Close as of . Source: Yahoo Finance historical market data. Prices are unadjusted; the one-month change compares Aug. 4 with Sept. 4.
The EX2 discount depends on who is buying
Brazilian reais; advertised starting prices and program prices
EX2 Pro
Public retailR$123,800
Corporate directR$115,134
Disabled buyerR$120,580
TaxiR$104,212
EX2 Max
Public retailR$136,800
Corporate directR$127,224
Disabled buyerR$133,242
TaxiR$115,155
CORPORATE CUT7.0%
both EX2 versions versus public retail
TAXI GAP15.8%
includes statutory tax treatment
FINANCINGUp to 36 months
rates advertised up to 0.99% monthly
Not a direct margin bridge: retail and direct-sale prices include different dealer economics and tax treatment. Geely’s program advertises discounts of up to 11% across the wider model range; the EX2 corporate table implies 7%.
Sources: Geely Brazil’s Sept. 1 direct-sales announcement and current EX2 offer page. Percentage comparisons are TS2 calculations.
Localization is the hinge in Brazil
The commercial push arrives before planned local EX2 output
JULY 202635% CBU EV tariff
Brazil’s import duty reached the planned ceiling for fully built electric cars.
SEPT. 1Direct sales open
Geely added corporate, taxi and disabled-buyer channels across its electric range.
BY END-2026EX2 output planned
Production is due at the Ayrton Senna complex in Paraná.
BRAZIL, FIRST YEAR>25,000
all Geely vehicles sold
EX2 SINCE LAUNCH>20,000
at least 80% of that total
AUGUST EXPORTS110,094
Geely vehicles, up 205%
BRAZIL RUN RATE≈1.9%
first-year monthly average versus August exports
The investor test: discounts can fill the channel now. Local assembly must later offset tariff and logistics costs without sacrificing the volume that the EX2 has built.
Sources: Geely Brazil first-year update, local-production announcement, Brazil’s official tariff report and Geely Auto’s August sales filing. Run-rate comparison is illustrative.
Stock MarketUS Stocks
XTEND Closes at $6.19 as $75 Million Earnout Sets a 6× Second-Half Test
NEW YORK, Sept. 4, 2026, 11:02 p.m. EDT — XTEND AI Robotics closed its first NYSE session at $6.19. The louder number sits in…
XTND recovered late, but not to the opening print
Selected intraday observations from the Sept. 4 NYSE debut
Close $6.19Range $4.98–$7.15Volume 3.7mAfter hours $6.00
Price as of . Regular-session close, range and volume: StockAnalysis, citing consolidated market data. Intraday line: Yahoo Finance five-minute observations. Prices are unadjusted and the new ticker has limited history.
The 2026 earnout is a second-half sprint
XTEND revenue only; U.S. dollars, as defined in the merger filing
H2 REVENUE NEEDED$64.42m
the gap to $75 million
MONTHLY H2 PACE$10.74m
versus $1.76 million in H1
PACE MULTIPLE6.1×
H2 monthly need versus H1 average
Investor read: the trigger applies to XTEND and its subsidiaries. JFB construction revenue in the combined pro forma statement does not automatically fill this gap.
Sources: XTEND’s first-half financial statements and the merger pro forma filing. TS2 calculations.
Fresh cash comes with a larger equity map
Closing disclosure and preliminary pro forma figures
ECONOMIC OWNERSHIP
Former XTEND79.61%
Former JFB20.39%
CLOSING CAPITAL$67.7m
company-reported amount delivered, above the $60 million minimum
PRO FORMA H1 LOSS$27.55m
combined XTEND and JFB net loss
EARNOUT SHARE TEST
2026 trigger10m shares
2027 trigger10m shares
RELATIVE TO PRO FORMA SHARE BASE3.6% each
10 million divided by 277.44 million weighted shares
PRELIMINARY GOODWILL$115.71m
41.1% of pro forma total assets
Not a forecast: the 3.6% figure uses the filing’s pro forma weighted-average share count, not a fully diluted future count. Options, pre-funded warrants and equity awards can change the denominator.
Sources: XTEND closing announcement, Sept. 3 Form 8-K and the SEC pro forma exhibit. TS2 calculations.
CryptocurrencyStock Market
Solana Holds $102 as 80 Billion-Payment Benchmark Tests SOL Value Capture
TOKYO, Sept. 5, 2026, 11:36 a.m. JST — Solana traded near $101.82 on Saturday, down 1.7% over 24 hours. A new payment benchmark makes…
SOL lost $100 briefly, then steadied
Hourly observations across the latest 24-hour window
Latest $101.8224 hours −1.7%Range $100.40–$104.70U.S. ETFs closed until Tuesday
Price as of . Source: CoinGecko. The line uses hourly observations; the range uses continuously aggregated market data.
One million payments do not mean one million settlements
How Solana’s payment-channel design moves agent spending
1 · OPENDeposit a ceilingFunds enter non-custodial on-chain escrow.
2 · METERSign off-chainEach purchase changes a cumulative voucher.
3 · SETTLEWrite onceThe consumed amount reaches the chain in one transaction.
4 · RETURNRefund the restUnused escrow goes back to the wallet.
TEST LOAD100,000unique wallets
AUTHORIZED RATE1m+payments each second
DAILY CAPACITY80bn+payments, Foundation estimate
ILLUSTRATIVE COSTabout $6280 billion times the stated unit cost
The $62 figure is arithmetic, not revenue guidance. The Foundation estimated $0.000000000776 of processing cost per authorized payment. Protocol fees depend on channel openings, settlements and other on-chain activity.
Source: Solana Foundation’s Sept. 3 payment-channel release and its reproducible open-source benchmark.
Liquidity on the chain is substantial, and uneven
Stablecoin supply versus decentralized-finance TVL, Sept. 5
Ethereum
$147.35bnstablecoins
$48.84bnDeFi TVL
3.0× ratio
Tron
$93.79bnstablecoins
$5.40bnDeFi TVL
17.4× ratio
Solana
$16.22bnstablecoins
$5.86bnDeFi TVL
2.8× ratio
BNB Chain
$13.32bnstablecoins
$5.62bnDeFi TVL
2.4× ratio
Stablecoin supply, scaled to EthereumTVL, scaled to Ethereum
Investor read: Solana holds more stablecoin capital than BNB Chain and slightly more DeFi value. Those balances improve the payment opportunity, though they do not guarantee proportional demand for SOL.
Source: DefiLlama stablecoin data and chain TVL data, retrieved Sept. 5, 2026. TVL can double-count or exclude some economic activity.
Stock MarketUS Stocks
PDS Biotech’s Lender Gets 100% of New Non-ATM Equity Cash
NEW YORK, Sept. 4, 2026, 10:21 p.m. EDT — PDS Biotechnology Corporation agreed to send 100% of new non-ATM equity cash to its lender.…
The financing reset followed a 65% one-day collapse
Daily closes, Aug. 5–Sept. 4, 2026
Friday close $0.2200After hours $0.2248Since Aug. 5 −69.9%8-K filed after close
Price as of . Source: StockAnalysis, using S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Returns use unadjusted closes. After-hours trading can be thin.
New equity now travels through the lender first
How the amended $6 million promissory note treats fundraising cash
NON-ATM EQUITY
100% mandatory redemption
1PDS closes a new equity or equity-linked financing outside its ATM.
2All net cash proceeds go to the holder within five business days.
3Cash pays accrued interest first, then reduces note principal.
Operational cash appears only after the note is fully repaid or another funding source is secured.
ATM SHARE SALES
Weekly cash sweep
1ATM proceeds first cover the next monthly installment and accrued interest.
2Above that threshold, 60% goes to the holder and PDS may retain 40%.
3PDS reports weekly and remits the applicable amount one business day later.
The ATM can fund operations, but the lender receives priority and a continuing share of excess proceeds.
EFFECTIVE ONLY AFTERSept. 14 paymentThe scheduled installment must be paid in full.
NASDAQ CURE PERIOD180 daysExtended from 75 days.
WAIVERSNone grantedThe holder demanded strict compliance.
Source: PDS Biotechnology’s Sept. 4 Form 8-K and the executed note amendment.
June liquidity was already below current obligations
Balance-sheet and cash-flow position at June 30, 2026
CASH$5.60mcash and equivalents
CURRENT ASSETS$7.05mavailable within one year
CURRENT LIABILITIES$12.38mdue within one year
WORKING CAPITAL−$5.33mcurrent funding gap
SIX-MONTH OPERATING USE$7.16mCash used by operations through June, down from $18.13 million a year earlier.
ILLUSTRATIVE CASH COVER4.7 monthsJune cash divided by the first-half monthly operating average. Actual needs can differ sharply.
Source: PDS Biotechnology’s Q2 Form 10-Q. The 4.7-month figure is a simple historical ratio, not company guidance.
NYSE:GRNDStock Market
Grindr’s $35.2 Million UK Settlement Equals 93% of One Quarter’s Cash Flow
NEW YORK, Sept. 4, 2026, 10:04 p.m. EDT — Grindr Inc. agreed to pay about $35.2 million to settle a UK privacy case over…
Grindr shares weakened before the settlement filing
Daily closes, Aug. 5–Sept. 4, 2026
Friday close $15.25Since Aug. 5 −14.2%From 52-week high −17.6%8-K filed after close
As of . Source: StockAnalysis price history and Grindr’s Form 8-K. Returns are derived from unadjusted closes.
The settlement consumes almost one quarter’s cash generation
$35.2 million settlement compared with Grindr’s Q2 2026 results
FREE CASH FLOW92.7%of $38.0 million
ADJUSTED EBITDA61.1%of $57.6 million
NET INCOME198.4%of $17.7 million
REVENUE25.5%of $138.1 million
What matters: payment dates do not necessarily set the accounting date. Grindr has not disclosed when the settlement charge will enter GAAP earnings.
Sources: Grindr’s Sept. 4 Form 8-K, Q2 Form 10-Q and earnings release. Percentages are derived.
Buybacks make the settlement look different
Grindr’s first-half capital choices and available liquidity at June 30
CASH$6.5mbalance-sheet cash
REVOLVER$200mundrawn debt capacity
SHARES RETIRED$147.2mfirst-half cost
SETTLEMENT$35.2mtwo future payments
JUNE 30$6.5m cashThe balance follows heavy first-half financing outflows.
→
DEC. 31, 2026$17.6m dueFirst UK settlement installment.
→
MARCH 31, 2027$17.6m dueSecond installment completes the agreed payment.
Investor read-through: first-half share retirements cost 4.2 times the settlement. The legal bill is material, yet prior capital allocation—not a weak operating quarter—made reported cash unusually low.
Source: Grindr’s Q2 Form 10-Q and settlement filing. Revolver capacity is debt, not cash.
NYSE:UBERStock Market
Uber Cuts 10% of Staff, Exits Nigeria and Uganda as London AV Trial Starts
NEW YORK, Sept. 4, 2026, 9:42 p.m. EDT — Uber Technologies, Inc. is cutting about 10% of its staff. The company also left Nigeria…
Uber shares held their ground through the reset
Daily closes, Aug. 5–Sept. 4, 2026
Friday close $75.76Since Aug. 5 +11.1%From Aug. 25 high −5.7%
As of . Source: StockAnalysis price history; unadjusted closes. Percentages are derived from the cited data.
Three decisions, one allocation message
Uber reduced organizational and geographic exposure while advancing a higher-upside platform bet.
CUTAbout 10% of staffManagement removed layers, combined teams and concentrated more roles in large hubs.
EXITNigeria and UgandaThe Sept. 2 withdrawal ended 12 years of Uber service in Nigeria and about a decade in Uganda.
BUILDLondon AV trialA small Wayve fleet began serving app users with a trained private-hire driver onboard.
Investor read-through: management is asking the market to value focus. The case strengthens when savings flow into growth without slowing the core marketplace.
Sources: Uber’s Sept. 2 employee memo, London launch announcement and The Washington Post.
The disclosed business is vastly larger than either exit market
Uber’s second-quarter operating scale and geographic revenue mix
$58.0bngross bookings
$14.2bnrevenue
$2.82bnadjusted EBITDA
$2.79bnfree cash flow
Nigeria and Uganda are inside EMEA, but Uber provides no country split. Reported EMEA revenue fell partly because a U.K. business-model change reduced second-quarter revenue by about $1.1 billion.
Source: Uber’s Q2 2026 earnings release and Form 10-Q. Geography bars compare each region with U.S. and Canada revenue.
Stock MarketUS Stocks
America’s Car-Mart Gets Four More Days From Lenders. CRMT Equity Has Little Room for Error
NEW YORK, Sept. 4, 2026, 9:26 p.m. EDT — America’s Car-Mart, Inc. won four more days of protection from certain lender defaults on Friday.…
A Friday bounce, before the filing
America’s Car-Mart daily closes, Aug. 5–Sept. 4
Friday close $2.40Friday +8.6%One month −29.6%
As of . Source: Yahoo Finance; unadjusted closes. The SEC received the 8-K at 5:15 p.m. EDT.
The waiver now ends four days later
The extension buys negotiating time. It does not disclose a permanent solution.
JUNE 19Relief agreedLenders waived specified existing or expected defaults, subject to milestones and restrictions.
SEPT. 4Four days addedThe agent and lenders moved the scheduled termination date beyond Sept. 7.
SEPT. 11New deadlineNo public transaction terms or permanent covenant cure accompanied Friday’s filing.
What the clock means: a deal can still help common shareholders, dilute them sharply, subordinate them in a recapitalization or leave them with little value in a restructuring.
Sources: America’s Car-Mart Sept. 4 Form 8-K and June 22 Form 8-K.
The equity sits beneath a much larger balance sheet
April 30 carrying values, except estimated market capitalization at Friday’s close
$47.0mcash and equivalents
$84.7mrestricted cash
$722.4mtotal balance-sheet debt
about $20.0mestimated common-equity value
Finance receivables, net
Carrying value$1.079bn
Company estimate of fair value$840.8m
Restricted cash is largely tied to securitization trusts and letters of credit. It should not be added to unrestricted cash as if fully available for general use.
Source: America’s Car-Mart fiscal 2026 Form 10-K. Market value uses 8,327,329 shares reported on July 14 and a $2.40 close; it is a derived estimate.
NYSE:ACHRStock Market
Archer Aviation Warrants Halt Ahead of Sept. 16 Expiry. ACHR Stock Is Still Listed
NEW YORK, Sept. 4, 2026, 9:12 p.m. EDT — Archer Aviation Inc. said Friday that New York Stock Exchange trading in its public warrants…
The $11.50 strike is a long way up
Archer Aviation daily closes and public-warrant exercise price
Friday close $5.71Exercise price $11.50Gap +101.4%
As of . Source: Yahoo Finance; unadjusted closes. The Sept. 4 close is shown against the contractual strike.
Two securities, three dates
The halt concerns ACHR WS. The common stock keeps trading as ACHR.
SEPT. 1Trading haltedNYSE stopped transactions in the public warrants.
BEFORE SEPT. 15 OPENSuspension beginsThe exchange plans to suspend the warrants formally.
SEPT. 16, 5 P.M. ETRights expireUnexercised public warrants become void.
ACHR common stock: still listed on the NYSE and not covered by the warrant halt.
Source: Archer’s Sept. 4 Form 8-K. Brokers may impose earlier operational deadlines for holders.
What disappears if the warrants expire
June 30 counts; dilution and proceeds are conditional calculations
17.395mpublic warrants
8.000mprivate warrants
25.395mpotential shares
3.3%possible share-count increase
$292.0mmaximum arithmetic cash proceeds
$3.0mJune 30 warrant liability, down from $29.9m
Sources: Archer’s June-quarter Form 10-Q and Sept. 4 8-K. Private-warrant cashless provisions can reduce proceeds. Share count was 770,023,800 on Aug. 5.
NASDAQ:LPSNNASDAQ:SOUN
SoundHound’s LivePerson Deal Adds Nearly 42 Million Shares. The Revenue Test Comes Next
NEW YORK, Sept. 4, 2026, 8:49 p.m. EDT — SoundHound AI closed its LivePerson acquisition after Friday’s bell, issuing 36.9 million shares to the…
The close brought no relief rally
SoundHound AI daily closes, Aug. 31–Sept. 4
Friday close $6.74From Monday −5.9%After hours $6.73
As of . Source: Yahoo Finance; unadjusted daily closes and extended-hours quote.
The debt disappeared; the ownership moved
Estimated common shares after closing, using SoundHound’s Aug. 6 count
39.9m–42.0mestimated new shares
9.0%–9.5%increase versus pre-close count
484.0m–486.1mestimated post-close count
Sources: SoundHound closing 8-K, merger prospectus and June-quarter 10-Q. Final count can differ because of Tel Aviv cash elections and awards.
More revenue, but two different trajectories
A quarterly snapshot, not combined-company guidance
$61.9mSoundHound Q2 revenue
+45% year over year
+45% year over year
$52.5mLivePerson Q2 revenue
−12% year over year
−12% year over year
$114.4msimple combined Q2 snapshot
before eliminations
before eliminations
$3.26bn–$3.28bnestimated post-close equity value at $6.74
$457.6mcombined Q2 sales, annualized mechanically
about 7.1×equity value to that sales snapshot
Wall Street snapshot
6 Buy2 HoldAverage target $12Low target $7
Sources: SoundHound Q2 release, LivePerson Q2 filing and Benzinga analyst tracker. The 7.1× figure is not an enterprise-value multiple or forecast.
CryptocurrencyNASDAQ:XRPC
XRP Slips 3.7% as SEC Widens the Crypto ETF Pipeline
NEW YORK, Sept. 4, 2026, 8:28 p.m. EDT — XRP slipped below $1.40 on Friday evening, giving back 3.7% over 24 hours. The decline…
Regulatory news met a macro selloff
Coinbase XRP-USD, sampled across the last 24 hours
Latest $1.397124-hour move −3.75%Range $1.3832–$1.4622
As of . Source: Coinbase Exchange; five-minute candles.
The new Nasdaq Texas portfolio envelope
The flexibility is real, but most assets must still clear existing tests
Active strategiesManagers may change holdings within a stated mandate.
Daily monitoringSponsors must watch the 85% threshold and report a breach.
Trading safeguardThe venue must halt trading if required portfolio data disappear.
Source: SEC Release No. 34-106268, issued Sept. 3, 2026.
What changed — and what did not
A regulatory route is not the same thing as an order ticket
ChangedBroader generic listing design
Nasdaq Texas may host qualifying active commodity trusts with the new buffer.
Did not changeNo new XRP fund approval
The order names no issuer, launch date, fee or required XRP purchase.
$364.25mXRPC net assets, Sept. 4
248.28m XRPXRPC token holdings
23.4mshares outstanding, unchanged from Sept. 2
Existing-product snapshot: Canary XRP ETF. Fund data can update after market close.
CryptocurrencyFederal Reserve
Bitcoin’s $80,000 Breakout Failed. CPI Is Now the Next Test
NEW YORK, Sept. 4, 2026, 8:18 p.m. EDT — Bitcoin was trading near $79,615 on Friday evening after a five-minute plunge erased its latest…
The breakout became a reversal
Coinbase BTC-USD, sampled through the last 24 hours
Latest $79,61524-hour move −2.0%Range $78,626–$81,438
As of . Source: Coinbase Exchange; five-minute candles.
Five minutes that changed the weekend setup
The 8:30 a.m. EDT Coinbase candle, aligned with the payroll release
Open to close−$1,516$81,336 to $79,820, a 1.86% drop
Candle volume339.6 BTCAbout 7.2× the previous five minutes
Payroll surprise+109,000162,000 actual versus 53,000 consensus
Sources: Coinbase Exchange, BLS and Axios. Prices may differ slightly by venue.
What decides the next move
Price levels are guideposts, not forecasts
$82,240
$81,438
$80,000
$78,626
$77,000
Sept. 10August producer prices, 8:30 a.m. EDT
Sept. 11August CPI, 8:30 a.m. EDT
Sept. 15–16Federal Reserve meeting
Calendar: BLS and Federal Reserve. Market levels: Coinbase and published analyst commentary.
Stock MarketUS Stocks
Immuron Stock’s 62% Rally Runs Ahead of the PROIBS Numbers
NEW YORK, September 4, 2026, 8:06 p.m. EDT — Immuron Limited gained about $5.6 million in implied equity value Friday. Traders embraced its new…
One session rewrote the price chart
Twenty Nasdaq closes through
Source: Yahoo Finance. Unadjusted daily closes; U.S. dollars per ADS.
A micro-cap traded at institutional scale
Friday's activity compared with the latest disclosed capital structure and normal trading
Friday volume121.63mADSs reported
Prior 20-session median11,550about 10,531× smaller
Equivalent ADS count8.07m322.85m ordinary shares ÷ 40
Implied value at $1.80$14.5mestimated gain: about $5.6m
Volume includes repeat trading of the same securities. Share-count estimates use Immuron's June 2026 capital update and the 40 ordinary shares per ADS ratio.
The agreement needs an operating bridge
The filed announcement established market access, not its financial payoff
Disclosed
- Exclusive U.S. distribution rights
- PROIBS already launched in Australia
- $4.16bn broad U.S. digestive-health category
- Immuron targets only a subset
Still missing
- U.S. launch date and regulatory route
- Price, retailers and initial inventory
- Minimum orders or agreement economics
- Revenue guidance and expected margin
Source: Immuron's September 4 Form 6-K exhibit.
Federal ReserveStock Market
Mexican Peso Hits a Two-Year High; Tuesday’s Budget Has to Defend It
MEXICO CITY, Sept. 4, 2026, 5:47 p.m. CDT — Mexico's peso closed at 16.8912 per U.S. dollar on Friday. That was its strongest official…
The peso finished the week at a two-year high
Mexico still offers 2.875 percentage points of carry
Policy-rate comparison before the September 15–16 Federal Reserve meeting.
Banco de México6.50%Overnight target, held in August.
Federal Reserve3.625%Midpoint of the 3.50%–3.75% range.
Current gap2.875 ptsA quarter-point Fed hike would narrow it to 2.625 points.
Sources: Banco de México and the Federal Reserve. The post-hike figure is a scenario, not a forecast.
Three numbers frame the budget risk
What is official now, and what remains only an outside estimate.
SubmissionSept. 8The statutory deadline for the 2027 package.
Official growth band1.9%–2.9%Preliminary 2027 real-GDP range published in April.
Banamex RFSP estimate4.5% of GDPThe bank's forecast for 2027, versus 4.3% estimated for 2026.
Sources: Mexico's Finance Ministry calendar and preliminary guidelines. The Banamex figures are analyst estimates reported September 3, not government targets.